Opening Day: Better than Christmas

Especially after the age of 30. No division in the National League is top-heavy and, when compared to the AL, has loads of pitching. Every team, expect the Nats, has a rotation to at least compete. On a team-by-team basis, there's more to like here than the American League. Yes. I said it. Although I'm a much bigger American League fan, the NL may provide much better baseball and much more excitement than the junior circuit this year.



NL WEST

The Dodgers' starting pitching coupled with their solid offense, speed and ridiculous depth will be too much for a strong but young division. Schmidt was topping out at 90 mph in spring training, a reason for concern but Lowe is always durable and if Penny rebounds from a brutal second half of 2006, this staff beats the Padres as the best in the division. With Garciaparra, Kent and Furcal, the team doctor should see a lot of business. But if mostly everyone stays healthy - always a big if - the Dodgers win the West, but...

The Padres' pitching is good. Chris Young had a breakout year last year and Greg Maddux will win 15 games, easy. Peavy is an enigma. He was pretty much awful in the second half of last year, not being able to locate his slider and walking everyone in sight. David Wells won't make 15 starts but Clay Hensley is underrated and sneaky good. The offense may be the problem. Bad. Watch Kevin Kouzmanoff, though. He may be better than David Wright. Everything will hinge on the pitching staff keeping the score low and close in order to hand off to Meredith and Hoffman, but...

The Rockies are good, good, good. Don't dismiss the pitching staff. With the humidor effect in Coors Field, Cook, Francis (terribly underrated), Lopez (dumped by the Orioles too early), and Josh Fogg (great spring training), the rotation is as solid as it has to be with this offense. Holliday and Atkins are bona-fide stars and if Helton returns to something resembling his former self, this is the best offense in the division. The addition of Taveras will be everything this team has been looking for if his hamstring holds up, but...

The Diamondbacks are only a year away from being silly good. Conor Jackson becomes an elite player this year and Stephen Drew is flat-out talented. Carlos Quentin will battle injuries all year but put up solid numbers in right and Chris Young, while a strikeout machine could approach 30/30. The pitching is iffy, though. Livian Hernandez is old, fat and bad and Randy Johnson isn't healthy yet. Brandon Webb is as good as it gets, but the whole staff may rest on the ability of Doug Davis being effective. If that happens, they might be decent but the pen is as brutal as they come, but...

No but. The Giants are old, old, old. Zito's contract may be the most ridiculous contract ever in baseball and that's a bold statement. He's changed his delivery and will have the advantage of seeing the league for the first time but his numbers have steadily declined over the last two years. According to the media, Matt Cain apparently is all that and a bag of chips. He's not. After that, the staff is populated with mediocrity and the bullpen is in worse shape. The offense is painfully mediocre, especially if Bonds plays less than 130 games. Durham will not duplicate last year's career numbers and attempting to replicate the glory days of Rich Aurilia in SF will end badly. Icky.

Predicted Order of Finish: Dodgers, Padres, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Giants

Players Who will have great years: Jeff Kent, Randy Wolf, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Greg Maddux, Atkins, Holliday, Taveras, Lopez, Jackson, Drew, Young

New Faces to become household names: Kouzmanoff, Clay Hensley, Andre Ethier, John Broxton, Terrmel Sledge, Chris Ianetta, Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Stewart


NL CENTRAL

The Cubs win it. With an offense like this and Derrek Lee healthy, nobody will put up more runs. The impending sale of the Cubs after the 2007 season was announced earlier today and I see something annoying magical happening this year. The pitching is average at best and that's all they will need. If Dempster approaches his '05 numbers, the bullpen is ridiculously good and that will make up for the rotation shakiness, but...

The Brewers are pretty good. A healthy Sheets makes this the best rotation in the division. Capuano, Suppan, Bush and Vargas are all above-average (well, maybe not Vargas) and the pen, if Cordero pitches like he did when he first came up with the Rangers, is good enough. The offense is young and loaded with gap hitters. Hardy, Weeks and Hall will be known by everyone by the end of the year and Prince Fielder has a year under his belt. Expect a big year, but...

The Cardinals have that whole World Series thing going on. The drive will be gone though, ala the White Sox, and they will sleepwalk through the season, competing early but dropping out of the race by late July. The rotation is just too iffy. Wainwright will be really good and Carpenter's one of the best in the game but Kip Wells and Bradon Looper? Ugh. The offense outside of Pujols is getting older (Encarnacion and Wilson?). If Rolen stays healthy and Chris Duncan get 550 abs, they could be okay. I don't expect much, but...

The Astros pitching is even more terrible. Outside of Oswalt and maybe, maybe Jason Jennings, the rest of the rotation is not good. Bad. The offense will hit a lot of home runs but this team is painfully slow and the defense may be the worst in baseball. They might be an active player at the trade deadline with Carlos Lee threatening to play for five teams in five years, but...

I want to like the Reds. The pitching isn't bad. Aaron Harang has some nasty stuff but Bronson Arroyo won't duplicate last year. I see Kirk Saarloos and Kyle Lohse being solid but the offense is fair to middling and injury-prone. If Griffey can play 140 games and Ryan Freel stays healthy and stays in center, he will be the breakout player in the NL Central. This is a bad, bad, bad bullpen with nobody even approaching a legitimate closer, but...

I want to like the Pirates as well. I like the strategy. Pitching. Pitching. Pitching. Watch to see how Nick Gorzelanny and Ian Snell progress. Both have live arms and incredible minor league numbers. If Zach Duke could pitch against the Cubs everyday, he'd be Cy Young. But he doesn't. Matt Capps is good and Torres is serviceable in the closer role until Capps is ready. The offense will be better than people think. Bay, LaRoche and Nady are a decent 3-4-5 and Chris Duffy could steal 60 bases this year if he learns to take a pitch. They're a year or two away.

Predicted Order of Finish: Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Astros, Reds, Pirates

Players who will have great years: D. Lee, Rich Hill, Matt Murton, Geoff Jenkins, Ben Sheets, Chris Duncan, Wainwright, Luke Scott, Morgan Ensberg, Chris Burke, Ryan Freel, Scott Hatteberg, Chris Duffy, Jose Bautista

New faces that will become household names: Hunter Pence, Chris Burke, Luke Scott, Homer Bailey, Chris Duffy, Brad Eldred


NL EAST

The Mets are good. Period. If they only had a rotation. If Pedro Martinez is back by late June - and back to being Pedro - the staff could be raised to mediocre. The offense is just silly good. If Moises Alou is healthy and gets 500 abs, this offense is the best in the majors and it's not even close. They'll win the division based solely on offense, but...

The Phillies have the pitching on paper that the Mets do not. Myers, Hamels, Garcia, Eaton and Moyer are all number two starters but the bullpen is merely good enough. Expect Ryan Howard to have a sophomore slump, as his swing seems to have a hitch just begging to be exploited. Utley is the best 2b in the majors right now and Shane Victorino, hitting second, will have a monster year. The bottom half of the lineup isn't anything to write home about but pitching makes up for everything, but...

The Braves are getting better. Expect Chuck James to approach 20 wins this year, as his stuff is just silly, and Tim Hudson seems to have solved his mechanics issues. The middle relief is crazy good setting up truck driver Bob Wickman. Offensively, they lack speed and swing and miss way too often. It's sort of feast-or-famine with this offense and I think they will miss Adam LaRoche with Scott Thorman still needing some seasoning, but...

The Marlins have a very good offense no matter how many predictions there have been w/r/t sophomore slumps. They are patient, hit for power and can run. The pitching is the big question mark with Josh Johnson out until after the All-Star break. Hitters seemed to have solved Dontrelle Willis last year while the rest of the rotation pitching a little over their ability. Sergio Mitre? Ricky Nolasco? That won't be duplicated. Look for Miguel Olivo and Josh Willingham to finally come into their own, but...

The Nationals will set the new standard for awful. A few Triple A rotations are better than this one and there was no excuse for not trading Soriano last year for pitching prospects. But I don't think their offense is as bad as people think. Ryan Church will have a huge year and Austin Kearns, finally given a stable situation, will really rake. Zimmerman's as good as advertised. But this pitching staff outside of Patterson (maybe) is just brutal. Expect 110 losses and some uniquely bad baseball.

Predicted Order of Finish: Mets, Phillies, Braves, Marlins, Nationals

Players who will have great years: Moises Alou, Carlos Delgado, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, Jamie Moyer, Chipper Jones, Chuck James, Tim Hudson, Josh Willingham, Miguel Olivo, Felipe Loez, Austin Kearns, Ryan Church

New faces to become household names: Shane Victorino, Jeremy Hermida, Josh Willingham, Scott Thorman, Mike Pelfrey


Coming Soon: Playoff predictions. Thanks for reading.