Not really, but Opening Day is here! In a year as wide-open as it's been in a decade, a few teams stand out as good, but none are superlative. Digging a little deeper into every team finds big holes on the good teams while findinga litte something to like from the bad teams (except for Nationals - ugh!).AL WEST:
No division has teams with more imbalance than this one. The Angels have the best pitching in the majors from top to bottom but the offense will be suspect. Everything hinges on how all their young players hit, which is not an enviable position to be in. If they win the close games, they win the division, but...
The A's are in the division. I don't hate the A's, they're just annoying. Okay, I hate them. Bobby Crosby? Bobby Kielty? Dan Haren? This team is as annoyingly pesky as the Twins. If Harden's healthy and Haren, the media's pick as the next Sandy Koufax, is moderately good, they'll contend. The offense will live or die on how Shannon Stewart and Milton Bradley hit. If they overachieve, the race with the Angels will come down to the last two weeks, but...
The Rangers have an absolutely unbelievable offense. The last two years, they hung tough through mid-July. If they find a way to get something resembling a pitching staff - which they currently do not - and learn to play through the Texas heat, they could make it a race, but...
The Mariners have a way of ruining other teams' winning streaks by suddenly playing well, ala the Royals, in key series. As a team, they're brutal. This pitching staff is as bad as the Rangers and the offense is a patchwork of tweaky veterans who are slow and too whiffy. Ichiro will be dealt by July.
Predicted order of finish: Angels, A's, Rangers, Mariners
Players who will have great years: Garret Anderson, Howie Hendrick, John Lackey, Milton Bradley, Rich Harden, Hank Blalock, Ian Kinsler, Eric Gagne, Jose Guillen, Adrian Beltre, Horacio Ramirez
New faces to become household names: Howie Kendrick, Brandon Wood (July), Daric Barton (due to the Dan Johnson injury), Ian Kinsler
AL CENTRAL:
Everyone says this is the best division in baseball. Yeah, but...the Tigers, with the Kenny Rogers injury, suddenly have a very average pitching staff. Bonderman could have a breakout season but Verlander isn't as good as everyone thinks (DL-bound with tired arm by June). If Maroth is back from shoulder surgery, that bumps it up to decent. The offense is very good...and older. There are a lot of injuries waiting to happen in Ordoñez, Rodriguez and Sheffield. Their depth will save them, though and the Tigers win a close race, but...
The White Sox are hungry again. The inevitable drop-off happened last year and the mojo will return. Kenny Williams strategy of stockpiling 200-inning starters should pay off again. The top four are slightly above average but solid. Buehrle will bounce back, mainly because he's in a contract year, and Contreras finally has learned how to age and be effective. If the fifth spot delivers ten wins, this is the best staff in the division. The offense will be good if Uribe, Podsednik and Crede revert to their 2005 form and Thome stays healthy, but...
The Indians, the new media darling, are back in the mix. Their pitching is not as good as people hope them to be. Sabathia is tweaky and an underachiever and Westbrook will frustratingly up-and-down (except against the Sox). Lee's injured. Byrd and Sowers? Bad. The offense is the best in the division. Great balance and it got better, but...
The Royals have become a baseball team again. This prediction could be a year early but what the hell. By the end of the year, we will know who Ryan Shealy, Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Luke Hudson is. If Mike Sweeney is healthy and provides some leadership to this team, the Royals finish just below .500 (and kill a few Sox winning streaks). The pitching is not as bad as predicted. Watch Greinke, Hudson and De La Rosa, but...
The Twins have some offense, though everyone had career years last season. Nick Punto? Michael Cuddyer? They come back down to earth. Mauer's great but a little too fragile. Morneau hit out of his gourd last year. And the pitching, oh, the pitching. Santana's the best in the game but, after that, it's ugly with Liriano out for the year. Any team relying on Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz to support a staff is begging for a disaster. Bonser's only decent and Silva was batting practice last year.
Predict order of finish: Tigers, White Sox, Indians, Royals, Twins
Players who will have great years: Chris Shelton, Mike Maroth, Grady Sizemore, Josh Barfield, Joe Borowski, Scott Podsednik, Jon Garland, Ryan Shealy, Alex Gordon, Zach Greinke
New faces to be become household names: Cameron Maybin, Pat Neshek, Jon Danks, Josh Fields, the whole Royals team
AL EAST:
Toughest division in baseball, hands down. The Red Sox, along with the Angels, have the best pitching in baseball, top to bottom, now that Papelbon has moved back to the closer spot. Look for Beckett to improve after a year seeing the league and Matsuzaka looks as good as predicted, mainly because he doesn't walk anybody. Schilling's healthy and, if the fifth spot is at all productive, they coast through the season. The offense is a little tweaky but stacked with hitters. Look for Coco Crisp to return to form and Lugo to have a huge year in the leadoff spot, but...
The Yankees are the Yankees, though they miss the Wild Card and things just implode in the off-season. This is the definition of bad pitching. Carl Pavano is the opening-day starter? Enough said. Wang was just too lucky last year and returns to this dimension while Pettitte won't make 30 starts, which this team desperately needs. The offense will put up a lot of runs but they are aging, especially at key spots. This will be the year that things will finally be dismantled. A-Rod will be dealt at the trading deadline, but...
The Devil Rays will score a lot of runs this year. They are Yankee killers and seem to be learning how to play in the AL East. The pitching isn't that terrible. Kazmir is solid while Seo and Shields could be good. None of the five starters are just brutal (well, maybe Fossum) while the bullpen by mid-season should be settled down. Expect an early deal to solidify the pen. The offense has a lot to like, but lack a bona-fide big bat. What they lack in a 40 hr. guy, they make up for in speed and gap hitters, but...
The Orioles are loaded with guys looking to return to form. Mora, Huff, Roberts, Hernandez and, most of all, Tejada have disappointed to say the least in the last two years. They lack a Hafner-type as well to anchor the lineup but this pitching staff is bad, bad, bad. Bedard and Cabrera are feast-or-famine type pitchers. Jaret Wright's an enigma and Trachsel, while the consummate overachiever, is poised to finally blow up. It could get ugly, but...
The Blue Jays will be even uglier. This is a team that seems like they just can't be bothered with the notion of playing baseball everyday. The pitching, outside of Halladay, is average to bad and a little too tweaky (especially Burnett and Chacin). What will kill the Blue Jays will be middle relief. Setting up B.J. Ryan, the best closer in the game, is a vast wasteland of retreads and also-rans. Glaus, Thomas and Wells is as good a 3-4-5 in baseball but expect two of them to go down with injuries. When that happens, this team is brutal.
Predicted order of finish: Red Sox, Yankees, Devil Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays
Players who will have great years: Lugo, Jon Lester, Matsuzaka, Crisp, Kei Igawa, A-Rod, Delmon Young, Ty Wigginton, Rocco Baldelli, Nick Markakis, Melvin Mora, Chris Ray, Tomo Ohka, Alex Rios
New faces to become household names: Dustin Pedroia, Phillip Hughes, James Shields, Ben Zobrist, Delmon Young, B.J. Upton, Akinori Iwamura, Adam Lind, Nick Markakis
That's it. Coming tomorrow (or the next day - whenever I get to it): National League Preview
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